He has straddled the Kenyan political landscape like a colossus for over four decades. His ambition has always been to be the president of Kenya. Though the ambition remains unfulfilled, Raila Odinga remains the fulcrum around which Kenya’s politics revolve.
Were he to succeed Chadian Moussa Faki Mahamat as the African Union (AU) Commission boss, Raila’s exit or a back seat in the Kenyan political arena would reverberate beyond the wildest imagination of many.
Intense lobbying for the seat is ongoing, but the campaign to replace Faki is set to officially begin once all interested candidates submit their applications by May this year. Raila asserts that he has already secured the majority backing in the East Africa Community bloc. President William Ruto is behind him as is Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni.
A photo of the trio herding Museveni’s cattle on his expansive Rwakitura ranch has been trending. Raila asserts that Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu and South Sudan’s Salva Kiir were also for his bid. He hopes to bag Rwanda’s Paul Kagame’s vote upon a meeting with him in Kigali.
The Kenyan is banking on his reputation as a champion of democracy and pan-Africanism. He is expected to heavily rely on his networks within the continental body to secure the seat.
Though the Raila candidacy has been endorsed by President Ruto, it would be foolhardy for anyone to imagine that the entire Nairobi government was behind it.
Deputy-President Rigathi Gachagua, in particular, may not openly oppose the Raila bid, for the sake of not being seen to contradict his boss, but anyone who knows him need not be a genius to know where his heart lies on the matter.
The garrulous Gachagua has never wasted any opportunity to blame Raila for everything bad under the sun while vowing to never drop his guard on ensuring the doyen of Kenya’s opposition politics does not close ranks with President Ruto. A Raila-Ruto cooperation, of whatever kind, would not only leave Gachagua with plenty of egg on his face but would also most likely deal a deadly blow to his future ambitions.
At the presidential level, Kenyans invariably mobilise along ethnic lines. Two major communities, Raila’s Luos and Ruto’s Kalenjins, joining forces would inevitably isolate Gachagua’s Gikuyu, who though are the single majority voting bloc, cannot succeed without the backing of another major ethnic bloc.
Of course, Gachagua has on his side many others who have never wished Raila well, mostly for ethnic reasons. Indeed, a whole lot of politicians, and they are legion, whose careers have hinged on demonising Raila, would be rendered irrelevant.
But even with Raila out of the way, Ruto would still need to work extremely hard to win over the former’s voting constituency, a huge proportion of which was yet to recover from the hurt of losing a controversial election in August 2022.
Should the president fail, the beneficiary would most likely be one of the other leading lights in Raila’s Azimio’s coalition. Raila’s three-time running mate and leader of the Wiper Democratic Movement Kalonzo Musyoka, in particular, was eagerly waiting on the wings to see the entire Raila Luo backyard shift its loyalty to him.
It is highly believed, and with a reasonable degree of credibility, that the reason for Kalonzo drumming up support for a Raila win at AU was because it would enhance his hopes for the presidency.
To a vast majority of Kenyans, Raila’s exit from local politics would mean the virtual death of the opposition, leaving the government room to run roughshod over them unfettered.
Many Kenyans were already reeling under the Ruto emasculation of critical state institutions, taxation excesses, corruption, reckless government expenditure, and unbridled tribalism, ills of which only Raila seemed to have the wherewithal to moderate. Who will Kenyans turn to with Raila away in Addis?
Then there are the Raila diehard loyalists, whose only reason for winning an electoral seat was the endorsement by the former prime minister. Raila going to Addis Ababa would be a career-ending move to this lot to be found at the various levels of elective positions. Like Gachagua and his lieutenants, the lot will not openly oppose the Raila AU overture, but their secret stand remains anyone’s guess.
Of course, some genuinely wish Raila’s bid well. To them, it would mark an honourable exit from the Kenyan political scene, to which he has given so much for so little in return.
At 79 years, Raila undoubtedly has pretty little time left to realise what has eluded him for decades in his beloved motherland. Finishing up with the AU top seat could just be what doctors recommended.
