he April 4, 2024 expulsion Ethiopia’s Ambassador Muktar Mohammed from Somalia did not come as a surprise.
The nerves between the two neighbours have remained raw since late last year when Addis Ababa penned a sea access deal with the breakaway Somaliland, an act Mogadishu considers an affront to its sovereignty.
And now, Ethiopia has added salt to the injury by recently hosting a high level delegation from Puntland, which also claims to have seceded from the greater Somalia.
In addition to the 72-hour exit order to Mohammed, Somalia also recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for “comprehensive consultations” and ordered the closure of the latter’s consulates in the semi-autonomous Puntland and the autonomous Somaliland within seven days.
According to the Somalia Foreign ministry, the measures were taken in response to the Ethiopian Government’s infringement upon the former’s “sovereignty and internal affairs”.
The decision came just a day after Ethiopia’s State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mesganu Arega, hosted a senior delegation of Puntland in Addis Ababa for investment, trade and infrastructural cooperation talks.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed late last year promised recognition to breakaway Somaliland in return for access to sea, in the hope of finally nailing Ethiopia’s landlocked crisis. However, the backlash that ensued was, in most probabilities, anything but what the parties to the deal had envisaged.
Leading the onslaught was obviously Somalia, which maintains that Somaliland is part of its territory, thus all its affairs, both internal and external, can only legitimately be transacted by the central government in Mogadishu.
The Africa Union and its sub-regional body, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought (Igad), were equally rattled by the MoU. The UN Security Council too gave an ear to Somalia’s concerns and engaged in consultations on the next course of action. Somalia’s friends, the world over, rallied behind Mogadishu. Indeed, there was also the faith-based support by the Islamic fraternity that would not fathom the dismembering of their member state.
The massive Ethiopia, was rendered landlocked courtesy of Eritrea’s secession in 1993. It’s desperation for access to the sea has seen it experiment with several options, including a Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) connection with Djibouti, inaugurated by former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.
The SGR links Addis Ababa with the Djibouti Port of Doraleh. More than 95 per cent of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti, accounting for 70 per cent of the activity at the Port of Djibouti.
Somaliland, on the other hand, seceded from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of President Muhammed Siad Barre’s government, but has spectacularly failed to win international recognition.
No UN member has so far recognised the territory, despite its concerted campaigns, especially on the pitch that it was more stable and peaceful than the Al-Shabaab devastated Somalia.
But why is the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, whose ascendance to power in 2018, was hailed as a harbinger for unity both at home and in the region, unrelenting on provoking Somalia?
There could be several explanations, but one seems more credible: Abiy has been grappling with a multiplicity of domestic crises and an enemy beyond the borders would come in handy.
Throughout the history of humanity, external enemies have always diverted attention from the internal threats and rallied peoples behind their leaders, however unpopular. With internal wars in Amhara, Tigray and Oromia, cross border hostilities could just be the best antidote for Abiy. Ethiopia, alongside Ghana and Zambia, were also debt-stressed and their economies are barely limping.
It could also be a question of personal differences between Abiy and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. It is instructive that in the not too distant past, when Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo was the President of Somalia, Abiy had envisioned the so-called Cushitic Alliance.
The initiative sought to bring Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea into an economic bond. It aborted mostly due to continuous internal problems in Ethiopia and trust issues between Ethiopia and Somalia on the one hand, and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other.
With the sea access deal now in limbo, and the cooperation talks with Puntland generating more heat than light, all eyes are on the two neighbours’ next move.
In the meantime, Kenya has proposed a regional maritime treaty to defuse tensions between the two Horn of Africa states, to allow Ethiopia to set up a naval base and gain a port access.
