Why Did the Ethiopian Military Incursion into Kenyan Territory?

The Ethiopian military crossed into Kenya’s northeastern region of Moyale on November 22, causing considerable tension between the two countries, which analysts attribute to poorly manned borders and continued cross-border conflicts among communities. 

The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) crossed as far as one kilometre into Kenyan territory ostensibly in pursuit of Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) militias that have been hiding in Kenya in case of a major conflict in their country.  

Ethiopian soldiers conducted searches near the Butiye and Sessi areas before withdrawing after two hours of gunfire exchange with the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF). 

These crossings by ENDF, which have been occurring intermittently since 2018, have been occurring due to the contested boundaries or tensions between communities along the Ethiopia–Kenya border.

Kenyan military sources attributed the incursion to the general breakdown of security command in Ethiopia, which has been dealing with many conflicts in the country, ranging from the Tigray war in the north, the Amhara insurgency in the northwest, the OLA insurgency in Oromia, and the insecurity brought about by the ongoing diplomatic tension between Ethiopia and Somali region of Jubbaland, bordering Kenya. 

There is also the disputed boundary lines around Moyale, the poor demarcation of the Ethiopia–Kenya boundary in Moyale, and Ethiopian forces occasionally pushing the line for tactical advantage or to secure water points and contested grazing lands among cross-border communities. 

The Borana zone in Ethiopia and the Marsabit/Borana regions in Kenya share cross-border communities. Sometimes local Ethiopian officials pressure the federal army to intervene in disputes involving the pursuit of stolen cattle, communal clashes and local militia mobilisation.

Cross-border communities exist between the Marsabit/Borana regions of Kenya and the Borana zone of Ethiopia. Local Ethiopian officials occasionally put pressure on the federal army to get involved in conflicts involving local militia mobilisation, community conflicts, and the pursuit of stolen cattle. 

Throughout 2025, the OLA has increased its activities in the Borana and Guji zones. Ethiopian forces frequently hunt down OLA fighters near Kenya, alleging that the terrorists utilise Kenyan settlements as rest, regrouping, or smuggling routes.

The Moyale frontier remains one of the areas of the Kenya-Ethiopia border that is still poorly demarcated. There have been minor territorial push-ins, temporary post installations, and detentions of pastoralist communities from both countries because some Ethiopian border units believe that specific grazing and settlement zones are on Ethiopia’s side.

Then there are the poor diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia since Addis Ababa signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in January 2024 with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which granted Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for the potential for formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation. 

In August, Jubbaland forces crossed into Kenya after a week-long fight with the Federal Government of Somalia troops in Bula-Hawa, after Ethiopia showed strong support for Jubbaland. The Ethiopian forces were also involved in the crossfire, which also pulled in Kenyan forces.