Even after losing two court cases against Jacob Zuma’s uMkonto we Sizwe party, the ruling African National Congress is still determined to block the former president from contesting the May 29 elections.
The ANC has now lost two cases—one on March 26 and the second on April 22—that were meant to block Mr Zuma from contesting the elections against President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Should ANC succeed in its appeal as it has promised—given the influence and power having ruled South Africa for 30 years—it could turn out to be a repeat of the Senegal scenario.
In Senegal, the popular and charismatic Ousmane Sonko, successfully threw his weight behind the 44-year old Bassirou Diomaye Faye, after he was barred from contesting. Mr Sonko was a major threat to the interests of former president, Macky Sall.
Similarly, in South Africa, the firebrand leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), Julius Malema is seeking to close ranks with Mr Zuma’s MK, should the party be barred from participating in the elections.
Mr Malema announced on April 17 that the EFF has no problem with Mr Zuma and that the former president had notified him about his MK candidacy before the party was launched last year.
The ANC has promised to appeal against the latest ruling on April 22, where a High Court sitting in the eastern city of Durban threw out a case in which the ruling party wanted uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party to stop using the name and logo of its disbanded liberation-era military wing.
The ANC contended that MK has adopted the name and the logo of Umkonto we Sizwe (The Spear of the Nation)—that was disbanded in 1993 prior to the majority rule in 1994—which amounts to copyright infringement. The ANC had also requested for payment in the form of royalties or damages from MK, which was also dismissed.
The ANC lost the first case on March 26 when the Electoral Court rejected its application that MK had not met the official registration criteria. Apparently, the ANC was initially not bothered when MK was launched last year but became alarmed when the populist Zuma joined the new party.
Indeed, the high court in Durban criticised the ANC for having failed to oppose the registration of MK’s name and logo in time before Mr Zuma announced he would support it.
Analysts argue that while it would be difficult for MK to beat ANC without forming alliances with other parties, the ruling party is concerned that Mr Zuma could seriously chip away their support base among majority blacks, especially in Kwa-Zulu Natal region.
A number of opinion polls have shown that ANC is in danger of losing its majority in parliament for the first time since 1994 (below 50 percent) due to a weak economy, allegation of corruption and mismanagement—besides a major onslaught from the EFF.
Currently, the ANC has 249 elected MPs in parliament, accounting for 62.15 percent, followed by the White-led Democratic Alliance (DA) with 89 MPs at 22.23 percent and EFF with 25 MPs (6.35 percent).
The candidature of Zuma—who was forced to resign in 2018 due to corruption scandals of State Capture—is a major threat to the ANC that is facing serious pressure from the electorate over the high levels of unemployment, increased poverty, high rates of violent crimes, government corruption and an electricity crisis that has led to frequent blackouts.
It would help matters for the ANC if the populist 82-year old Zuma was not in the ballot. Despite having left the presidency in disgrace, Mr Zuma remains extremely popular among the unemployed youth, as was witnessed in July 2021.
His brief jailing that year for contempt of court ignited the worst violence in South Africa’s post-apartheid history with more than 300 killed in looting and rioting. The MK youth leader, Visvin Reddy has warned of serious violence if the party is barred from the elections.
In March, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) barred Mr Zuma from running for a parliamentary seat in the May 29 elections and declared him ineligible under the law, due to previous criminal convictions. But the verdict was overturned a few days later by the Electoral Court.
Mr Malema and EFF are strategising to benefit from Zuma’s supporters should the ANC appeal succeed and Zuma and MK are barred from participating in the elections.
While launching EFF manifesto on April 17 in Eldorado Park, south of Johannesburg, Mr Malema announced that he would soon meet Mr Zuma to discuss an alliance with MK. Mr Malema said that both EFF and MK are speaking the same language—issues of land, employment and restoration of the economy.
Just like Mr Malema has argued over the years, Mr Zuma recently said that the ANC had lost its past glory and is now a “captive” of the White Capital.
Besides Senegal, the same situation occurred in Kenya in 2013 when some civil society members went to court to bar former president Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, William Ruto from contesting.
The Duo were facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) following the 2007/08 post-election violence. They went on to win the 2013 elections despite facing serious charges.
Yet, the ANC can still sit pretty—even with Mr Zuma in the ballot—given the poor performance of those who had left ANC in the past.
The best example is the Congress of the People (COPE) which was formed in 2008 by former members of the ANC; Mosiuoa Lekota, Mbhazima Shilowa and Mluleki George with the intention of weakening the ruling party in the 2009 general elections.
The party received 1,3 million votes and a 7.42 percent share of the vote, and managed to get 30 seats in parliament. But later, years of leadership wrangles between factions supporting Mosiuoa Lekota and others supporting Mbhazima Shilowa, saw COPE disintegrate.
By the 2014 elections, COPE won only three seats in the national assembly, down from 30 seats in 2009. The party, facing extinction, later joined DA—a party representing the White minority where it was swallowed.
