The worst-affected regions, the main causes and the magnitude may differ, but famine is hardly ever a new phenomenon in South Sudan. Indeed, the state that came into existence only in 2011 and is, in the highest probability, bound to be part of it in the foreseeable future.
Thanks to incessant armed conflicts, poor governance, climate change and over–dependence on oil as the mainstay of the economy, Africa’s youngest nation is once again in a firm grip of famine that could claim thousands of lives, akin to what happened in 1998. The latter killed an estimated 70,000 people in Bahr al-Ghazal, its epicentre.
The 1998-99 famine defied the hitherto unprecedented humanitarian intervention in the then Africa’s largest country. The United Nations estimated that as of July 1998, there were 2.6 million people at risk of starvation in Sudan, out of a total population of about 27 million.
The mortality rate was horrific with one Medicine Sans Frontiers (MSF) nutritional and mortality survey putting it at 120 people daily at Ajiep, one of the relief magnet locations. The “relief magnets’ were the food distribution points which attracted the needy. The needy in turn attracted more relief and more aid agency workers, with the numbers of the three spiraling.
This famine was caused and perpetuated by human rights abuses by all parties to the civil war, then in its 15th year. The principal warring parties at that time were the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the main rebel group in the south, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A).
It worst affected the northern part of Bahr al-Ghazal, where GOS had long sponsored various militias which mounted periodic raids on civilian as well as military targets, killing and abducting, stealing livestock and grain, destroying homes and crops. The region had also endured a two-year drought, caused by the el-nine phenomenon.
As if fate never ceases to conspire against it, South Sudan is also currently contending with an influx of people fleeing violence in the neighbouring Sudan. According to the WFP, about 83 percent of the estimated 500,000 new arrivals are South Sudanese returning to a country already hosting over 360,000 refugees and 2 million internally displaced persons, with limited livelihood opportunities.
Humanitarian agencies put at 9 million those in need of food aid this year. To salvage the situation, aid agencies reckon, there must be additional funding and unhindered access to the areas with the greatest need.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), UNICEF and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) had, as early as November 2022, warned that the proportion of people facing high levels of food insecurity and malnourishment was higher than the levels seen even during the conflict in 2013 and 2016.
According to their projections, about two-thirds of the South Sudanese population (7.76 million people) would face acute food insecurity during the April-July 2023 lean season, while 1.4 million children would be malnourished.
The agencies linked the sorry state to conflict, poor macroeconomic conditions, extreme climate events, and spiraling costs of food and fuel. The situation was further aggravated by a decline in funding for humanitarian programmes despite the steady rise in the needs. Unsurprisingly, the famine has spilled into 2024.
According to a recent report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), some 17 counties were in the red as at the start of the post-harvest period in February, mostly in the greater Bahr al-Ghazal and greater Upper Nile.
The affected areas were expected to nearly double in the next lean season between June and September 2024, fueled by the high returnee burden, severe flooding, elevated tensions and rising violent conflict in the lead up to December 2024 elections, and likely disruptions to livelihoods, trade, and food assistance.
