Somalia’s Jubbaland presidential elections which were aborted in August are now scheduled for November 30, 2024.
However, there is controversy following the move in July by the incumbent, Ahmed Mohamed Islaam commonly known as Sheikh Madobe who changed the constitution to remove the two-term limit.
Elections in Jubbaland are normally based on clan preferences with the Ogaden being the majority, followed by Marehan, Haarti, Rahanwein, Galgel and Shekhaal.
The leading candidates are Sheikh Madobe, Dr Abdullahi Ali, the US-based businessman and founder of non-profit organisations both in the US and East Africa, and a former members of Madobe’s administration—all of them belonging to the dominant Ogaden Clan.
Sheikh Madobe has been the de facto leader of Jubaland since the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) entered Somalia in 2011 and took control of Kismayo port. He was elected in 2013 and again in 2019 in an election that the then president Abdullahi Faramajo term as fraudulent.
The federal government in Mogadishu and opposition groups have condemned the decision to scrap the term limit, which was made during the fifth session of the Jubbaland parliament in the regional capital of Kismayu. These groups have voiced serious concerns about the transparency and fairness of the upcoming regional elections.
Both President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre—who hails from Jubbaland—are not happy with scrapping the term limit and want Sheikh Madobe out.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud condemned the amendments saying they undermine the progress that Somalia has made towards democratic governance. “We call on the Jubbaland authorities to respect the earlier agreement and hold credible elections that reflect the will of the people,” he said.
The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) has also voiced its opinion, advising all sides to engage in an inclusive political dialogue to resolve any outstanding issues and ensure that the electoral process in Jubbaland is conducted in a manner that is free, fair, and transparent.
Kenya places a great deal of attention on the region, especially the greater Ogaden population, and political interactions with it are common in Nairobi and the country’s northeast. In 2019, Kenya supported Sheikh Madobe’s re-election against Mogadishu’s wishes. KDF played a crucial role in the formation of Jubaland after jointly capturing the capital city of Kismayo in 2011, alongside Madobe’s forces—Ras Kamboni.
Dr Ali has been mobilising the community in Jubbaland and the diaspora. ‘Our Alliance aims to bridge divides and unite disparate interests under a common national identity. We cannot move forward without inclusivity and involvement of all people in Jubbaland. We dare to insist on a leadership that represents the aspirations of all citizens and residents, fostering trust and cooperation across different groups,” he said.
The key issues that will shape the elections in November include security, economy, and clannism. Sheikh Modobe has been unable to eliminate Al-Shabaab in Jubbaland, with 57 percent of the state, including the capital, Buale, in the hands of the militants. Dr Ali, a member of the Aulihan of Ogaden, which is dominant in Middle Juba and parts of Gedo, vows to liberate Buale, which is the capital of Jubbaland and is currently controlled by Al-Shabaab.
In February, the Jubbaland Council of Presidential Candidates, Traditional Elders and Politicians issued a statement stating that the Jubbaland administration is not committed to implementing the National Consultative Council Agreement, according to Article 70 of the Constitution of Jubbaland—that had limited the presidency to two terms.
While Jubbaland has fertile soil ideal for agriculture, the security situation has prevented most people from farming. The region depends on cross-border trade with Kenya, humanitarian assistance and the export of live animals to the Gulf through the port of Mombasa.
The state faces severe challenges due to Al-Shabaab’s control, which threatens security and hinders socio-economic development. Civilians endure instability, displacement, and limited access to basic services because of ongoing conflict and violence.
According to Dr Ali, frequent attacks, including bombings, ambushes, and assassinations, destabilize the region and instil fear among residents. Combating these threats is challenging due to Al-Shabab’s ability to blend into local communities and exploit governance gaps.
Somalia and the international community will be closely watching Jubbaland as the November polls approach since the results could have a significant impact on Somalia’s democracy and stability going forward.
