When Eritrean president Isaias Afewerki landed in Beijing for an official visit to China on May 14, it opened a new chapter in Eritrea’s relations with the world since the United Nations imposed economic sanctions on the country in 2009.

The UN Security Council imposed economic sanctions on Eritrea on allegations of supplying arms and supporting Somalia militants Al-Shabaab, human rights abuses, and its border disputes with Djibouti. The sanctions were also meant to reduce Eritrea’s Ethiopian conflict in Badame 1998 – 2000.

But the Eritrean government maintains that the UN sanctions were wrong because they were imposed to undermine and weaken the government for political reasons. 

Mr. Ibrahim,a senior Analyst for East Africa centre for Research and Strategic Studiessaid that the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritreans not because Eritrea supported militants in Somalia but because Eritrea did not support the interference of any power in the internal affairs of Somalia. More importantly, it did not support the invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia in 2006.  

“Eritrea has never had a destabilising agenda in the Horn of Africa. The 1998 war with Ethiopia was instigated by Tigray in northern Ethiopia with the active participation of the USA,” he said. 

Ironically, it is Ethiopia that enabled the UN Security Council to lift the sanctions in 2020 after Asmara signed a peace deal with Addis Ababa and reached out to Djibouti and Somalia under the so-called “Cushitic Alliance”.

In 2018, Ethiopia’s then-new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, signed a peace agreement with Eritrea. This move saw Dr Abiy win a Nobel Peace Prize and used the newly found influence to lobby for the lifting of sanctions against Eritrea.

Recently, the United States imposed new sanctions on Eritrea and top generals for what they called interfering in the internal affairs of Ethiopia by joining forces with Dr Abiy to fight the Tigray Authorities in the north—Afewerki’s archrivals. the US Treasury sanctioned the Eritrean army’s chief of staff, General Filipos Woldeyohannes for this interference.

The challenge is that the US also suspended development aid to Ethiopia, as well as the country’s status under African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), due to the atrocities that its troops committed during the conflict in Tigray. Mr Ibrahim counters that Ethiopia has never complained that Eritrea is interfering in its internal affairs. 

On the contrary, the Ethiopians praised the Eritrean people and government for their support in protecting the sovereignty and unity of Ethiopia.  “So why would the US government sanction Eritrea for taking a stand on the unity of Ethiopia and also; for applying its right to defend itself from the Tigray aggression? Western countries often use the issue of human rights as a way of subjugating nations that do not abide by their vested interests,” he said.  

Mr Ibrahim went on to explain that Eritrea was a victim of Tigray’s aggression on its soil after they fired a number of rockets inside Eritrea in an unprovoked attack.  And Eritrea had the legal right to respond in kind.

In a recent televised interview conducted by the Ministry of Information, President Afewerki described the sanctions as ‘unjust and unfair’, and argued that it was imposed by special “interest groups” in the USA. Afewerki admitted that the sanctions hurt, but added that they made Eritrea even more resilient and self-reliant.

Why Sanctions Did Not Work

Experts say that the sanctions had negative effects on the economy such as limited access to international markets, but did not hit Afewerki where it hurts most—political effect. Afewerki’s grip on power remained intact and he was not threatened by any internal revolt that could have threatened his rule.

There are a number of factors that made Eritrea survive the sanctions and posted about 7 percent growth for many years, becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in The Horn. One, Eritrea had limited ties and reliance on the international market.

After the imposition of the sanctions, Eritrea looked inwards with the mining sector, remittances from the diaspora, and agriculture being the mainstays of the nation’s economy. The government has implemented policies to cope with limited access to international markets, such as promoting import substitution, diversifying export destinations, and implementing austerity measures.

Thus, Eritrea has pursued policies of self-reliance and economic independence. The government has implemented measures to develop domestic industries, such as mining, agriculture, and manufacturing. By focusing on self-sufficiency, Eritrea aimed to reduce its vulnerability to external pressures, including sanctions.

Despite these measures, Eritrea still had to deal with the negative impacts of sanctions such as the restrictions on international trade, investment, and financial transactions which limited opportunities for growth and hindered the well-being of its population. Currently, GDP growth is projected to fall to 3.6 percent in 2023 from 4.7 percent in 2022 due to increased international prices for metals.

Eritrea’s recent growth performance has been marked by significant volatility in part due to its dependence on a predominantly rain-fed agriculture sector, accounting for about one-third of the economy and which has a significant impact on distribution services which account for around 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and on a narrow mining sector which also accounts for 20 percent of the economy. Growth was led by industry and services on the supply side and private consumption and investment on the demand side.

The GDP stood at $8.090 billion as of 2020. However, worker remittances from abroad are estimated to account for 32 percent of gross domestic product. Eritrea has an extensive number of resources such as copper, gold, granite, marble, and potash. Eritrea’s economy recovered from multiple shocks, notably desert locust invasions, and COVID-19, to grow by 2.9 percent in 2021

Mr Ibrahim says that there is nothing wrong with Eritrea taxing the diaspora and that the 2 percent Rehabilitation Tax was imposed just after independence in 1993 by the Eritrea diaspora themselves as part of their contribution to building their new country. Many developing country doing more than 5% to their citizens abroad so why focusing on Eritrea.

Eritrea depended on “trusted partners” ready to help in Africa and the Gulf. First, it was Libya under President Gaddafi; after his fall, Eritrea engaged the Gulf countries, notably Qatar and Iran, before shifting focus to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2016.

Thirdly, Eritrea adopted silent diplomacy in which it forged regional alliances and maintained diplomatic relations with various countries in the region, including Ethiopia, Sudan, and Gulf states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. These relationships have provided alternative avenues for trade, investment, and political support, lessening the impact of international sanctions.

Forging New Alliances?

After making peace with Ethiopia, Eritrea is now reaching out to other major key players. President Afewerki’s visit to China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, sends a strong message that Eritrea is no longer willing to sit on its laurels but to shake off the pariah nation tag and become a key player for peace in the region.

Eritrea has been an important partner for China in Africa, and China has been a major investor in Eritrea, particularly in the areas of infrastructure and natural resources. During the visit, the two leaders discussed ways to further consolidate this partnership, focusing on political, economic, financial, development, and trade issues.  Eritrea is strategically located in the Horn of Africa and is an important partner for China as far as minerals are concerned.

In April, Eritrea sent another strong gesture to the world when it voted ‘no’ to the resolution at the UN general assembly that condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Afewerki was seen as a person who is always operating against the interests of the West, having shackled him with sanctions for over a decade.

But Rudi Bereketeab, an author says that Eritrea is not seeking protection from Russia and China, because, when the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritrea, Afewerki sought no political protection from Russia or China as other regimes do.  He says almost all regimes such as Syria, Iran, and North Korea, which are hostile to America, seek protection from Russia or China so that these veto powers block multilateral actions in the UN Security Council.

Having re-joined the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Eritrea is now ready to play a key role in fomenting peace in the region. Afewerki has taken a keen interest in the goings on in Sudan, saying during the interview that the conflict in Sudan should not be taken for granted because it has the potential of destabilising the entire region.

These days, the global geopolitical picture appears positive. Even some African leaders are starting to have second thoughts about how the west is managing the global order. The American ambition of establishing a unipolar world order appears to be falling apart. It is reassuring to see that some African leaders have a political will for change. says an an analyst from EACRSS.