After Somalia joined the East African Community in November 2023, it was an open secret that it was just a matter of time before either Ethiopia and Djibouti expressed interest.
Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for EAC, Arid and Semi-Arid Lands and Regional Development, Peninah Malonza announced on April 8 that Ethiopia is set to join the regional bloc bringing with it a market of about 150 million.
Ms Malonza said that the talks between Ethiopia and EAC heads of State Summit has been ongoing and are in the last stages.
One of the conditions for joining the EAC is that the applicant must share a border with an EAC member, among other many conditions.
Even though Ethiopia had the opportunity to apply for EAC membership before Somalia given that it shares a border with Kenya, the leadership of Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed was more concerned with the so-called “Cushitic Alliance”.
Cushitic Alliance sought to bring Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea into an economic alliance that has since aborted due to continuous internal problems in Ethiopia and trust issues between Ethiopia and Somalia on the one hand, and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other.
But the EAC partners after admitting the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are eager to entice Ethiopia which would give the regional bloc a market of 800 million.
Former EAC Secretary-General, Dr Peter Mathuki had hinted last October that Ethiopia would be next despite experiences with hasty admission of South Sudan, Burundi and DRC—without meeting the laid down preconditions—has not helped them adopt common good practices, as envisaged.
The prerequisites include; geographical proximity to a member state; demonstrate commitment to Regional Integration; the ability to align their legal and institutional frameworks with the existing structures and regulations of the EAC.
This includes adopting common policies, laws, and standards in areas such as trade, customs, and immigration. Other prerequisites include stable economies with sustainable growth prospects; Political stability, good governance, and respect for democratic principles like, human rights, and the rule of law; and the unanimous consent of the existing member states.
Should it be admitted, Ethiopia will become the 9th member state joining Burundi, DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
Ethiopia meets the condition of neighbouring EAC members, Kenya and Somalia, plus an average annual GDP growth rate of around 10 percent for over a decade driven by investments in infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
Despite not meeting the other remaining conditions, there are questions about what benefits other EAC partner states would derive from Ethiopia’s membership?
Ethiopia would bring a huge market of 150 million—second only to Nigeria in Africa—that would provide a market and investment opportunities for other partner states.
Ethiopia’s economy is among the fastest-growing in the continent. Its membership in the EAC may promote trade and investment opportunities, which would support regional economic growth. The EAC’s intraregional commerce can grow as a result of Ethiopia’s sizable market and varied economy.
Ethiopia has a lot of knowledge and resources in agriculture. Cooperation among the EAC members might result in technology transfer, knowledge exchange, and agricultural development projects, all of which would increase food security and production in the area.
Ethiopia’s rich cultural heritage—which includes its history, customs, and multitude of ethnic groups—can support cross-cultural dialogue and improved understanding amongst EAC members. Within the community, this interchange can develop regional identity and promote social cohesiveness.
But Ethiopia could bring in some of its burdens to the EAC—just like the recent entrants. The biggest concern is insecurity given that Ethiopia has had two wars back to back since 2020—in Tigray and Amhara.
The government of Dr Abiy has been accused by humanitarian organisations and the United Nations of abuse of human rights and war crimes in the Tigray and Amhara regions.
Despite its impressive growth, Ethiopia faced several challenges, including political instability, ethnic tensions, poor infrastructure in rural areas, and a lack of access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Ethiopia had been attracting significant foreign investment, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. However, concerns remained about the ease of doing business, bureaucratic hurdles, and currency volatility.
